AFL Multiple Bets
Big handicap, small handicap in AFL.
Betting on handicaps in the AFL is very popular. Due to the regularity of counting, the results can range from exciting wins of 1 point to +10 breakthroughs on goal. AFL betting often refers to a handicap in terms of the difference in the number of goals between teams, even if the number is not accurate. For example, a victory of 17 points can be called a victory of 3 goals, although in fact 3 goals is 18 points.
AFL Multiple Bets https://pro-stats.com.au/
In the handicap market, the difference is 1-39 points or 40+. These values never change, but the coefficients change depending on the strength of the opponents. A 40-point win is, in fact, 7 goals, and this reflects a fairly dominant game, i.e. almost two goals better on average per quarter. the difference of 1-39 points reflects, as the name suggests, a much closer struggle. A victory of 30+ points does not seem close, but due to the running nature of the game line, such differences often happen already at the finish of the match, when one team stops running.
In the example above, an advantage of 1 to 39 for any team is the preferred result, since the game is expected to be close. There are juicier coefficients for 40+ that can and do happen quite regularly. A draw is an option due to the lack of extra time. Draws occur in slightly less than 1% of cases, so the coefficient of 21.00 per draw is small, it should be more like 51.00.
Another common difference is 1-24 and +24. This difference is becoming popular in games that are perceived as close. The 24 points sought represent a four-goal victory, which on average surpasses goals per quarter.
Tip: In games that seem close to betting on the winner, you will always find great value by betting on a small winning market 1-39.